What if … Lessons to be learned
On the 25th of April each year, New Zealanders and Australians commemorate the sacrifices their ancestors made on the shores of Gallipoli in 1915 for the first time as “ANZACs” (Australian & New Zealand Army Corps), as well as remembering those involved in subsequent conflicts thereafter.
But what have we learnt?
History seems to repeat itself, in various ways, time and time again, with human beings in the form of tyrants wishing to establish dominance for themselves, their country, and over others, in the world that we live in.
What could have been done in the past to prevent such tragedies, and what can be done now in the present to aid current and future ones?
For example, could World War 1 (or the “Great War” or “The War to end all Wars”) have been prevented and, if so, how?
Facilitation, mediation, or arbitration could very well have negated such a terrible onslaught, IF all parties had been willing to listen to (not hear) each other, and to understand each other’s situation and needs, without influence of each other’s imperialist, nationalist, economic, & racist biases, as well as pride & honour.
In her book “The War That Ended Peace” Margaret MacMillan states that “The nineteenth century saw a proliferation of societies and associations for the outlawing of war, and for the promotion of such alternatives as arbitration for settling disputes between nations.”
There were a number of crises prior to 1914, such as the Moroccan crises of 1905/06 and again in 1911, the Bosnian crisis of 1908, and the Balkan wars of 1912 & 1913, that could have led to an earlier global conflict, but were indeed settled through arbitration. Why did it not happen in 1914?
Margaret MacMillan also states that “It is easy to throw up one’s hands, and say the Great War was inevitable, but that is dangerous thinking, especially in a time like our own, which in some ways, not all, resembles the vanished world of the years before 1914. Our world is facing similar challenges, some revolutionary and ideological such as the rise of militant religions or social protest movements, others coming from the stress between rising and declining nations such as China and the United States.”
Some historians will dismiss “What if’s” as being meaningless, as history never changes as a result. But by looking at what could have been done better to prevent such a past catastrophe, we can apply the same principles to the future. The “What if’s” suddenly become “Options” or “Choices” which provide flexibility and open the door to negotiation, leading to agreements, treaties, co-operation and, ultimately, peace for the world.
This might seem a “pie in the sky” look at the world, but those same “Options” or “Choices” were available then, as they are today.
What if the primary countries in Europe had settled their differences once and for all, by facilitation, mediation, or arbitration, prior to 1914?
There would have been no World War 1, which would have meant no Versailles treaty, which would then have meant that World War 2 would also probably not have happened either. Approximately 73,500,000 people (the casualties of both military and civilian from both World Wars), would probably have gone on to lead normal lives, and contribute greatly to world society.
Sobering food for thought … What if?
I leave you with Margaret MacMillan’s last line in her book, which reads “There are always choices.” There are indeed.
About the author
Bruce Reid is a Resolution Coordinator at Fair Way. He guides parties in conflict through the dispute resolution process. Bruce has a strong interest in reading and researching military history in his spare time.